yeah! Gas prices are back to normal (knock on wood)

[Kasumi]

A couple of weeks back I paid 99.9 pence per litre and thought that once it went over the pound it would never return, last week 92 pence per litre which I am reliably informed is about eight bucks per (US) gallon.

They get in cheap in the US. Complaining about $3.00 a gallon annoys me, but hey what can ya do.

[jackiei26]

Wow and I thought it was cheap here at $2.359/gallon.  I've really enjoyed driving home from work the past couple weeks and seeing the price getting cheaper and cheaper just about everyday.

Where in NJ are you at?  Here where I live in Monroe Twp, they vary from $2.43 to $2.49 (regular unleaded).  I think the cheapest I saw it was $2.39 in East Brunswick.

[flyingbeagle71]

But it will be only a few years before it will be ridiculously expensive, forcing everybody to reconsider their lifestyle choices.

What does gas price have to do with being ghey?

[MarkusN]

Hey, if all the good chicks live miles and miles away...

[Stephen072774]

In reality, oil is still REALLY expensive and still costs way more than it's worth, it's just moving closer to where it should be.  I'm sure fuel prices will go back up sooner or later for the same reason they did before, but there is no reason why they can't stay this cheap.

Yeah, right. Fact is that demand is exceeding production capacity now and will continue to do so in the near future. Which, as every economist will tell you, will force prices up steeply. Google "peak oil" for some really scary stuff.

the peak oil theory is way alarmist, and thats the nicest thing I can say about it. 

[LimaXray]

Where in NJ are you at?  Here where I live in Monroe Twp, they vary from $2.43 to $2.49 (regular unleaded).  I think the cheapest I saw it was $2.39 in East Brunswick.

I live in western end of Morris County.  We usually have slightly cheaper gas than the most of the state, but $2.43-2.49 is about what the prices were here late last week, so you're not far behind us.  If you're prices are dropping like they are here, I bet by the end of day today or tomorrow you'll be seeing those prices too.

the peak oil theory is way alarmist, and thats the nicest thing I can say about it.

exactly, and it's that 'the sky is falling' mindset that makes oil expensive, and not a real lack of supply.

[RVertigo]

Yeah, right. Fact is that demand is exceeding production capacity now and will continue to do so in the near future. Which, as every economist will tell you, will force prices up steeply. Google "peak oil" for some really scary stuff.

the peak oil theory is way alarmist, and thats the nicest thing I can say about it.

Then maybe you should read the whole thing...  Peak Oil isn't a theory, first of all.  It's already happened in many countries, including the US.  The Global Peak is what's next...

Peak Oil is simply the trend of demand outpacing supply...  First discovery peaks, then production peaks, then demand peaks...  That is what peak oil is about.

Oil discovery peaked globally years ago...  So, next we have to look for a peak in production.  Some say the peak in production has already happened others say it's still a few years off...  And people that don't understand reality say it will never happen.

Peak oil has nothing to do with "running out" of oil.  It has everything to do with supply and demand.  When demand is greater than the supply, the price goes up.  The bigger the difference between the demand and the supply, the higher the price goes...  Add in the fact that oil production has (or is about to) peak, which means the production will go down, and the fact that demand is only going to get higher...  Then you have a real problem for countries who's economies are entirely based on cheap oil...  Like the US.  99% of our food production requires oil for fertilizer, pesticides, planting, harvesting, and transporting...

And if you think alternative fuels are going to jump in and save the day, take a look at Brazil.  Do some research on their conversion to ethanol fuels and make sure to look at the date they started the conversion.

So, to recap...  The worry is not that we're running out of oil fuel.  The worry is that oil fuel will become more and more expensive until economies around the world will begin to suffer...  Then the worry is when oil becomes too scarce and expensive to be a viable source of fuel.  It could take 20 years before the US feels it, but other countries are already feeling it...  What would it take for the US economy to be impacted by oil prices?  $100 per barrel?  $120 per barrel?  How much would gas have to cost per gallon before you couldn't afford to drive?  $5.00?  $10.00?

It's not if, it's when...  20 years?  40 years?  80 years?

And one last time, peak oil doesn't mean running out of oil, it means not finding enough cheap oil to keep up with demand.

[pandy]

They get in cheap in the US. Complaining about $3.00 a gallon annoys me, but hey what can ya do.

I can't believe I had to pay $2.69 the other day! 

[Stephen072774]

I have read the whole thing, i know what its about... and yes I think there is a bit of truth in it.  But its sure not gonna keep me up at night with worry.  The US has oil in the gulf of mexico, some 40 years worth, that we haven't even figured out how to drill yet.  And before you write me off saying I don't know what i'm talking about, I work in the coal industry... heck, we can even make oil from coal in ways we haven't even started exploring. 

[flyingbeagle71]

Oil discovery peaked globally years ago... So, next we have to look for a peak in production. Some say the peak in production has already happened others say it's still a few years off... And people that don't understand reality say it will never happen.

I've never read the Peak Oil theory, I'll look into it.  From what you said though, it has already happened here.  Isn't this assuming that new, more efficient production methods aren't introduced?  Aren't most of our refineries using ancient technology that could be updated if they were allowed to?

Not trying to start a fight, this is just a topic that interest me...

The US has oil in the gulf of mexico, some 40 years worth, that we haven't even figured out how to drill yet. And before you write me off saying I don't know what i'm talking about, I work in the coal industry... heck, we can even make oil from coal in ways we haven't even started exploring.

Don't we also own huge oil fields in Alaska that haven't been tapped because of environmental reasons?

[RVertigo]

But its sure not gonna keep me up at night with worry.  The US has oil in the gulf of mexico, some 40 years worth, that we haven't even figured out how to drill yet.  And before you write me off saying I don't know what i'm talking about, I work in the coal industry... heck, we can even make oil from coal in ways we haven't even started exploring.

It shouldn't keep you up at night... Since there's nothing you can do about it. 

40 years of oil?  Oh yeah?  Wow...  Gee, I'm sure glad we found that!  I'm gonna go get a H2 now![/sarcasm]

Srsly dude...  Do you even know how much oil is 40 years worth?  I'm talking 40 years of our current consumption rate, which is growing fast.  The best annalists don't even know how much oil is 40 years worth...  It's all theoretical usage based on current consumption.  But, the demand for oil is growing faster than any annalist have ever projected...  If an annalist had projected this much growth 10 years ago, they would have been called a nutter and dismissed as alarmist.

Even at our current rate, in the US ONLY, 40 years of oil is an incredible amount of oil...  Any field that could provide that much oil would have to be 10x (or more) as big as the biggest oil field ever found.

And...  Again..............  Peak oil isn't about running out of oil.  It's about demand for oil outpacing the production of CHEAP oil.  Yes, we can make oil from coal.  We can extract oil from the sandstone in Canada...  We can even make oil from left-over turkey parts...  But, none of that is cheap, fast, or easy. 

The truth is, we have enough burnable material on this planet that we'll probably never stop burning stuff...  But...  AGAIN...  It's not about running out.


The "Alaskan Reserve" oil is about enough to keep up with demand for 2 years...  And that's at current demand...  Too bad it can't be extracted at that same rate.


Cheap Sweet Crude Oil is disappearing.  We ARE running out of that...  Heavy, dirty oil that requires much longer and more expensive processing isn't going to help the problem...  Why?  'cause it costs a lot.

$120 per barrel?  Isn't that the goal of anti-American terrorists like Osama?    That's why oil that is expensive to refine isn't our saving grace.



Maybe you should look through the statistics again...  Current world-wide oil usage...  "Projected" Growth...  x40...  Then look up the amount of usable oil extracted from the largest oil field ever found.

[pandy]

Amazing how an innocent little thread celebrating the price reduction of gas can turn into WWIII in such a short time.... 

[RVertigo]

ITEOTWAWKI

[Stephen072774]

The US has 185 new coal fired power plants slated to go online in the next ten years, do you think that sounds like something we are running out of?  Fossil fuels go hand in hand... that 40 years was an example of oil that we don't know how to drill yet, don't even know how to drill!  Thats not counting whats readily available.  2 years in Alaska, come on... I, personally, hope we stay out of Alaska, because theres plenty in the Continental US and Gulf to last till were gone.  Again, I find some truth to the Peak Oil theory, I just think its gonna be several more generations before the collapse of society forces us to live in caves rubbing sticks together.

And btw, I enjoy good conversation, its not ww3 by any stretch... I know I'm not gonna sway RV, but I enjoy the banter

[pandy]

It's early yet! *ding ding* 

[RVertigo]

We are WAAAY off from being out of coal...  Natural gas is even pretty far off...  That's not what I was saying and not what Peak Oil is about....  Although, those will peak as well.


There are several examples of peak oil, even right here in the US.  Why do you think we're so dependent on foreign oil?  We still have oil in the US, but it's just not enough because we peaked...  Our local production peaked and our demand is still growing.  We will continue to have "lots" of oil in the US, but it will never be enough to match our demand.

Countries that were previously light oil users (compared to the Americas and Europe) are now coming on line with the rest of us...  That means that demand is no longer growing at a predictable rate...  It's almost exponential.  Yet, world-wide oil production hasn't been increasing.

If China hit half of our per capita usage, there'd be no oil left for anyone else.

Peak Oil is a reality of business...  Peak "Wood" happened in Europe hundreds of years ago...  Trees were over-harvested and became a rare resource.  There are TONS of other examples of a finite resource being used faster than it can be replenished...  So, why would oil be different?


So... On to alternative fuels...  Again, take Brazil as a perfect example of alternative fuel conversion.  They started back in the 80s.  Yet, it's still not 100%.  Why?  Because the fluctuating price of oil has made it difficult to stabilize the ethanol market...  Why would you pay more for E85 or 100% ethanol fuel when you can get petroleum gas?  In normal engines, it burns better giving you more HP AND more MPG...  (That rule doesn't apply to all Internal Combustion Engines...  I think it's Volvo or Saab that has a turbo that gets better mileage AND HP when running E85)...  So, 20+ years later Brazil is still trying to bring the price of ethanol fuels down to the price of petrol fuel...

Now, take the same example and apply it to the US.  First, we're nowhere near setup to handle the demand of the consumer, much less the commercial oil usage, when it comes to ethanol-based fuels.  Second, even if we were setup for it, you have to ask why Brazil can get the price so low.....  Easy, nearly third-world economies have LOTS of manual laborers willing to work for almost nothing...  Cheap manual labor means less fuel used in the creation of fuel and it means less cost in creation as well...  Is the US ready for that?  Not by a long shot.

Other alternatives?  Hydrogen is an energy sink...  It costs more energy to make than it creates...  So, you're always working backwards.  Now, I've heard that someone has come up with a way to make Hydrogen more efficiently.  If that is true, then maybe hydrogen can break even...  But, it's a loooooong way from being cheap or efficient to create.  Now, in happy-happy-pretend land, if Hydrogen were as cheap as petroleum fuel, there's still the world-wide cost of conversion.  Gas burning engines aren't easily converted to burning Hydrogen (and by easily, I mean cheaply and quickly) when compared to conversion to other fuel sources such as ethanol (which still isn't all that cheap).

Hybrid cars?  Better, but they still require gas...  Still not a solution.  And cars aren't the real worry... It's machinery used for farming, food processing, and food transportation.

Electricity?  Well, we're slowly getting to a place where the rare electric car is available to the rich...  But, it's nowhere near a solution.  Another problem to think about is where the electricity comes from...  Solar?  HA HA HA! Yeah right!  Oil?  Yup... Coal?  Yup...  WA is one of the very very few states that produces (something like) 90% of its electricity from non-fossil-fuel sources...  Yay Hydro! (Sorta, but that's a whole different conversation).

What else?  Biodiesel?  Same basic problem as ethanol...  Production VS Demand...



So, what's the solution?  Well for one, a time machine.    And two, a government that takes energy seriously...  If every single family home in the US produced 80% (or higher) of it's own energy needs on its own (solar and wind for power and geothermal for heating/cooling) that would be a good start.  Nantucket is a grand example of what we have to look forward to...  Then have nearly zero natural resources left on the island...  So, they have to be pretty creative or pay a CRAP LOAD for basic needs.  Yes, household geothermal heating/cooling is in use there...  And it works.

So...  For the normal consumer, a self-sufficient home and an electric car means you can still have your lights on and drive to work...  The good news is that you'd be freeing up fuel for farming and transportation...  But, those will need an alternative as well...  Maybe, just maybe, Biodiesel and Ethanol production could keep pace with those industries.

Then we'd be all good.

[Mandres]

The answer is nucleur.  Our physicists are nowhere near understanding the forces and potentials at work inside the atom.  Every year we get a little closer though and someday we'll fully harness the power of inter and intra nucleic forces just like we harnessed electricity. 

Maybe it will be within my lifetime, maybe not.  The fossil fuels will hold out until that time though.   

[Mr.7]

Amazing how an innocent little thread celebrating the price reduction of gas can turn into WWIII in such a short time.... 

+1
Don't worry this isn't the first time this has happened to one of my threads and it probably won't be the last.


...and Arvy Jackalope, do you accually believe the crap that you type? 

[RVertigo]

The fossil fuels will hold out until that time though.

I still don't think you quite get the concept...  There will always be fossil fuels...  But, there will not be enough of them to match the demand for them, which will drive prices up and cause serious economic problems.

[RVertigo]

...and Arvy Jackalope, do you accually believe the crap that you type? 

Which part of the crap?


I don't think it's hard to understand...  Supply and Demand is one of the simplest concepts in business and trade...


Do you understand:

- supply?

- demand?

- supply and demand can change the price of goods?

- large demand raises the price of any goods?

- a supply that can not meet demand raised the price even further?

- the demand for oil is increasing drastically?

- the production of oil is not increasing at the same pace as demand?

- world-wide discovery of new oil fields peaked about 20 years ago?

- discovery peaks are ALWAYS followed by production peaks?  (This has been proven time and time again with more than just oil)

- once production peaks, demand will not stop growing?

- once demand exceeds production the price of oil will continue to get higher and higher until the economy is hurt by the price?


Do you understand all of these concepts and ideas so far?  Do you think any of these are false?

Should I continue or will you do some research on your own?