So, oil hit over $67US a barrel today, I figure it's time to see what people think, and what people know. Are any of you aware that a growing number of professionals believe that world oil production could peak by 2008 or sooner? The US Energy association put the date somewhere nearer 2035-2040. During the oil shocks of the 70's (when US oil production peaked) oil went up to about $80 a barrel (adjusted for inflation) The usual price is $20 per barrel. Are the rising gas prices affecting anybody yet? Im really just curious what others think of the subject. It could all be a marketing scheme to make the oil company's (governments) more money, after all they did make tens of billions more compared to last year. So, opinions?
I guess I'll just have to ride the bike more and I am glad my car isn't an SUV.
50 mpg :thumb:
well, i suppose optimism is key :)
the peak oil thing may wind up being serious excrement hits the fan stuff.
this is one reason i've seriously thought about getting a vehicle that could run biodiesel. i'd love one of those military diesel KLR650s that gets 150+ mpg.
Well it is quite disturbing that it has jumped so high in such a short amount of time but compared to the rest of the world it is still pretty cheap.
Yay for peak oil...
I'm pretty sure the global peak will happen within the next year... Assuming it hasn't already happened.
Going to work a couple of days ago I paid $1.62 a LITRE at current exchange rate. I guess we will be fermenting and distilling sugar beet/corn/apples etc to burn in engines on a much bigger scale fairly soon.
Our old friend Otto Deisel invented an engine in 1912 designed to run on corn oil after all it was only the fact that in the 20s and 30s oil was plentiful and certain companies had a vested interest in burning it that the corn oil thing did not catch on in a big way.
Chris,
I've mentioned that before in other posts. It is a REAL problem and the big question is when will it happen.
I don't know what you know about "peak oil" so I'll give you a quick primer.
Supposedly there is only so much oil. The oil is locked away underground in deposits, some very large other quite small. Many believe that ALL of the large deposits have already been found and tapped (the artic refuge will be soon). Oil isn't simply pumped out of the ground like tapping a big drum, it is contained in cracks in rock or sand. You can only pump it so fast. Think of a slurpee, if you suck it fast you "dry out" and have to wait a while until you can get some more liquid. Same thing with an oil well, you can only pump so fast and let it fill back in. So, with all the oil deposits found, being pumped, and pumped as fast as possible, you have "peak oil" which means the END of energy growth which also means the end of ALL growth because of the ties to energy. The Saudies are already there, you already hear about lack of "excess capacity". That means they are pumping all their fields as quickly as they can.
BTW, corn oil isn't the answer, alcohol isn't the answer. To grow crops takes oil. Fertilizer takes oil. It takes as much or more oil to make an equal quantity of any of these "bio" fuels. Hydrogen isn't the answer either. It takes a LOT of energy to make hydrogen and even more to turn it to liquid for storage. Solar is really our ONLY hope for clean, cheap, renewable energy. Then we can save the oil that's left for making things. Oil is used (as an ingredient) to make just about everything that isn't wood or metal.
BTW, I own a "royalty trust" it buys up oil fields and collects a royalty on every barrel pumped out. So, as the price of oil goes up the royalty goes up too. It's paying a 10% dividend right now.
who cares whenthe oil peaks, just as man has always done-- something will come along as a replacement fuel. we may have to change the way we move from place to place, but we'll still get there. maybe my bike well be running on maple tree extract :dunno: or maybe distilled cow $*it :dunno: either way we will always get to where we need to go. By the way I have a company vehicle and gas card so gas prices don't affect me that much. last fill up on my personal vehicle lasted 4 months
Joerocker's point about alternative fuels is a good one. Most ethanol and biodiesel production relies on the machinery of farming that is mostly running petro diesel. I run biodiesel in my truck anyway and sometimes make it from waste oil which changes the energy dynamics. Most ethanol and biodiesel stuff right now is simply a way to get government subsidies.
I have given up on the public ever investing in real alternative sources of energy. Few seem to have the desire to sacrifice now for later benefit. I guess we will lurch toward an energy crisis and hopefully rising fuel costs will be enough of a market force to encourage other developments.
Maybe that cold fusion will eventually work out, or we will learn how to mimic photosythesis at some point.
Otherwise, I see a lot of these in our future.
(http://www.osha.gov/SLTC/etools/electric_power/images/nuclear_powerplant1.jpg)
Quote from: callmelennyJoerocker's point about alternative fuels is a good one. Most ethanol and biodiesel production relies on the machinery of farming that is mostly running petro diesel.
as you point out, most of the farm equipment runs on diesel anyway. the switch to make it run biodiesel would be fairly easy. in some cases you'll have to replace some hoses and things.
in fact, it's my understanding that there are at least a handful of farmers who have already switched and are growing their own fuel.
You don't get it... Biodiesel relies on things that grow and ALL the fertilizer is made from oil. You're NOT gaining ANYTHING you're simply using MORE oil on something else that could have been simply used as regular petroleum fuel in the first place.
THERE IS NOTHING TO REPLACE OIL. You NEED to learn that. ALL fertilizer, ALL plastics, ALL fuels need oil in their production. Hydrogen requires oil to produce, uranium requires oil to produce, bio-fuel requires oil to grow it and produce it. Oil is IT! Besides the sun there is NO other energy. OIL is what made the world what it is today.
Go and look at a chart of human population. There were only a few million people on earth up until several hundred or so years ago. Then suddenly after the industrial revolution there were a billion. Then around 1950 or so there were 3 billion. Now there are about 6.5 billion. OIL is what allowed the food supply and transportation needed to feed these people. Estimates are that the world can sustain (as long as the oil holds out) about 10 billion people.
There is NO substitute for oil. Look up what oil is used for. Look up how much we use a DAY. Look up the proven reserves. You don't just start running your bike on bio fuel, you throw ALL the cars away and start over. This is potentially a HUGE problem that may get here faster than any of you would like. This isn't something to pass on to your grandchildren, YOUR grandparents already passed it to YOU.
Ok, now a quick word for all the nit-pickers. Sure, SOME farmers are self-sufficient with energy and growing their crops, etc. BUT, they are doing everything by hand/animal labor, growing organically, blah blah blah. That works for them and a SMALL operation. maybe they feed their family and run a small produce stand. To feed a nation or a world cannot be done that way. You NEED the oil.
Also, Id like to add that the world carrying capacity without oil is estimated at around 2.5 billion, or roughly 4 billion less people than are living on this planet today. Once oil does peak, a conservative estimate of how many more years we can get out of the oil at the current rate of consumption would be about 50. Also, nuclear can and most likely will become a huge part of electricity generation, but we still have the transportation to worry about, which all uses oil. The government will start to regulate how much gas you can have per week, or month, youll get a gas card that allows only a certain amount to be purchased, so there is some left for transporting food and cloths to the supermarkets and wal-marts. Alot of the bigger oil feilds are being pressurized by pumping sea water into the wells, which reduces the ultimate amount of recoverable oil, and also makes the feild decline once peaked faster, some at more than 10 percent a year. today gas went up to 99.9 where i live, still nothing compared to what the people in europe are paying, but you have to realise that because our economy (North America) is the 20mpg type, rather than the europeans 60 mpg type, rising gas prices will hurt us more than they will europe, a very smart move on europes part was to put crazy high taxes on their gas, it will pay off in the end for its citizens. Im not saying its the end of the world, but it is certainly the end of this kind of world, be prepared for complete and total change.
http://peakoil.blogspot.com/2005/06/biomass-chemistry.html
this all sounds like a really good argument for birth control.
Now convince the minorities to do just that.
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what we need to do is convince maybe 50% of the world's population to become homosexual.
that would go a long way to solving the population problem right there. might do wonders for theatre too.
LOL :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :)
Personaly I feel it's about darn time America takes another slap in the face for using all the World's Oil. Let face it How many times commuting to work do you see HOV-lane users [legaly]? In DC here not very often espicaly when you compare the amount of HOV drivers to all the single passenger vehicles. :x Whatever happened to car pooling, or riding the City's Bus? Ya I know the Bus sucks but if there were enough people riding it then the City would be more inclined to dump in some of that tax fund into making better routes, better/cleaner experiences etc...
Out of curiousity how many GS's were purchased to save money on gas over their 4wheel contenders? I know that was the 2and reason I even got into motorcycling, was the though of 50+mpg
Another good thing about this "peak oil the world is DOOMED" plot is it might whip the American Obesity epidemic into action. I personally have 15miles to travel to work. I'm looking and researching bicycles that I might purchase in the future just for transportation to-from work. And even my car gets 38mpg. So if gas hits $5 a gallong so be it. I've already goten into the mind set that gas in America will not be below $3 ever again I'm personaly set to move into the pedal power age :lol: 8) But Seriously where was the research on alt. fuels? Errr ya >>> There was none because DOT was bussy trying to figure out how to keep SUV's from rolling over...... :roll: :roll:
Like someone already said we [america] need to focus on a 60-75mpg economy and not this 18mpg SUV demands.
As for electric, power I think Solar looks very promising and I think Wind turbines will aid in the transition to a solar electric grids for cities. Nuclear's days are winding to a halt....TO unstable, and still HUGE Q's on what to do with the waste products?? You pretty much have to store it for ever....Until Humans can Get a Fission reactor under control I think Nuclear power is all spent :lol:
Bio-diesel is good for the environment as far as byproducts go and it AKA-burns trash to make power. HOWEVER like someone else pointed out it still remains the same demand on Oil to filter the biodiesel and make the fertalizer for the crops that will turn-into the biodiesel.
Bottom line
__________________
It's all about Supply and Demand
also, id like to say about biofuels, if you planted every square inch of america with corn, and every crop worked. you still wouldn't have enough fuel to power the transportation sector, never mind electricity generation.
or we could all just start using GS500's all over the world :)
at least nobody would complain ;)
somebody else (cant remember where) made a point, were already at our max in refineries, so even if opec, or whoever supplies the fuel, ups production, were making as much gas oil, diesel as were able to. any truth to this?
I thought we were supposed to have flying cars by now!!
yamahonkawazuki,
I did a while back. Know why? I'll bet they KNEW the end was coming. Why build a multi-billion dollar refinery if you KNOW there won't be enough oil to keep it busy? There is also the environmentalists, they FREAK at what a refinery puts out into the land/water/air.
IF this is all true and oil is coming to an end, it IS a major concern and a radical change to life as we know it. Until (and if) something else is found, we're in for a BIG surprise.
As the price of oil goes up (it's doubled in the last year) it takes the price of EVERYTHING up with it. Things are going to be pretty expensive this Christmas.
I think there are two main reasons oil is so high. First is fear of stability in the Middle East. Iran elected a hard-liner who wants to bring back shari (Islamic) law (women have NO rights again) and he just formed his cabinet out of other hard-liners. They INSIST (even though they have TONS of oil) that they NEED nuclear power and are starting their program for enrichment again. IRAN, if equipped with nukes, could hold the oil fields hostage and charge whatever they wanted or cut the supply off completely. The US knows this and WILL stop them at any cost. The Afghanistan war was part of this. The Iraq war was too. Sort of a chess game. Position your pieces (army bases in Afghanistan and Iraq) and hopefully the other side will quit. If not you're ready to pounce quickly. That oil WILL be protected and free to flow by hook or by crook.
Second is the fear that it's beginning to run out. Supply and demand. If it sells as fast as it's being pumped it commands a premium. Can't wait to see the classifieds next year with the rock bottom prices for SUVs. Civics will probably sell for more than your Escalade! Suckers...
We already use bio diesel at work, we changed nothing. I am the nightshift supervisor for a landfill. My crew runs three tractor/trailer rigs and four pieces of heavy equipment. The way gas prices are going no one who works for me will be able to drive to work in a week or so. :o
The bio diesel is great stuff...no problems and about four months of use.
We may or may not be running out of oil, we will for sure at some time, production is probably peaking in next few years. Set against that the oil industry when faced with a world price crash in the late 70s stopped all exploration and most development and they have never really got back to the exploration levels since.
Joe makes a point that oil is used for pretty much everything these days and apart from his assertion that all fertilisers are oil-based, I'll agree with his synopsis. We probably use too much fertiliser anyway but that's a different argument.
We can't do much about world reserves of oil, they are either there or they are not. Bio? Someone said there was not enough space to grow all the source crops, that may not be quite right, despite world hunger there is a vast overproduction of many food and non food crops due largely to both covert and overt subsidising of farmers in the industrialised west.
Anyone who has run their own business or who weighs things up without letting the politics of oil get in the way can see that price is a matter of not just supply but demand. In the last five or six years, both China and India have started down the road to become economic superpowers, they have a lot going for them not the least is cheap, some would say slave labour in some industries. What they dont have is oil to drive the economies and meet the needs of people who were once content with a donkey or a pedal-cycle who now all seem to want a Mercedes.
The world price of many scrap metals has rocketed in last few years because China in particular is sucking-in raw materials faster than they can be produced in many cases, hence the price goes up.
So, we have production fears and a huge increase in demand that is simply not going to go away. Find more oil is a short term answer, find alternatives in the longer term reopening the nuclear power debate etc, wind and tidal power could be the answer where I live but ultimatley we have to get used to using less and/or making much better use of what we have.
It's a bit like the Obesity issue, we all know the answer but populations in "western" societies continue to put on weight.
We gotta use less, two wheels good, four wheels bad!
Quote from: joerockerSecond is the fear that it's beginning to run out. Supply and demand. If it sells as fast as it's being pumped it commands a premium. Can't wait to see the classifieds next year with the rock bottom prices for SUVs. Civics will probably sell for more than your Escalade! Suckers...
sounds like a good reason to get a scooter.
Quote from: Cal PriceWe gotta use less, two wheels good, four wheels bad!
:lol: :lol: :lol: :thumb:
that's a little harsh, Cal. couldn't we just say, "four wheels good, two wheels better"?
Noooo... No ghey scooters!
Cal,
The fertilizer thing, I lumped natural gas in with oil since they both usually come from the same place and they're both being used up quickly. Virtually ALL fertilizer (commercial) is made from a natural gas base stock.
China, oh yeah, I mentioned that one before too. If we DON'T run out of oil, we'll all be speaking Chinese to do business. They recently took their currency OFF the dollar standard. The US government said it was good... BS! Now there is another economic power for the world to base THEIR currency on. The US just dropped a notch in prestige. EVERYTHING is made in China now. The US doesn't make squat. Soon we'll be hurting when China "cuts us off" over the Taiwan issue. They tried to buy a US oil company but that fell through, at least the politicians saw THAT one coming. If you own a US oil company it's easy to ensure that YOU get the oil.
Oh, and the "working slaves" argument doesn't hold water. They may be working for "slave wages" ($4 a day) by OUR standards but compared to their neighbors they're living like kings making 4X more than they are. It's all relative. "Sweatshops" really are good for the country that is "lucky" enough to get them. Without them the country would have NOTHING. These shops trigger other things like shipyards to accept the raw materials, trains/trucks to deliver, increased discretionary income to be spent on "luxuries", etc., and eventually the whole country begins to prosper. That's how many countries get/got their start.
Indy,
Yes it was harsh, I was parodying the "Animal Farm" thing about legs that one of the members used to use on his/her signature.
Joe,
I never said that "slave" labour or sweatshops were bad for their economy but they are kicking crap out of our industries in the long term, the short term benefit is the price of this that and the other in Walmart but eventually we lose the capacity to Produce. Britain became the production centre of the world and military and economic superpower 'till about 1950, founded on poor working conditions since the Industrial revolution. The U.S. will have it's 80-100 years and then as you imply China will move into that slot. Unless they tear themselves apart like the "East Block" after the wall came down in Europe it is very difficult to see anyone on the horizon after China.
Natural gas, yes I see your point but you have obviously never smelt the fields in Europe, lucky man, particularly central and Eastern where most of the fertiliser is made from something that you would not mention at a dinner-party! We do that as well and use a lot of nitrogen-fixing crops like clover and legumes of all types.
Good or bad, China ain't going to go away or close down its production facilities so even if vast new oil reserves are discovered and old ones squeezed even more the demand is still likely to keep growing, hence prices rising. If I had the answer I would not be where I am now but I think we have just got to get used to it.
Quote from: Cal PriceIndy,
Yes it was harsh, I was parodying the "Animal Farm" thing about legs that one of the members used to use on his/her signature.
i was playing on that actually.
when the animals first revolt, one of their laws is "two legs bad, four legs good." later, when some of the elite animals start walking upright they change it to "four legs good, two legs better."
:thumb: :thumb: :thumb:
Actually, i dont think we will hurt at the pump. On the news, the reporter is saying "Gas prices are spiraling upwards, but whats making them go up?" and it shows a guy standing beside his new porsche filling up. Luckily, we, the people, all seem to have way too much money.
Keep in mind a few things about the oil bidness.
Exxon-Mobil stock up 71% since war started, Haliburton stock up 186% during the same period. During this period US demand for oil has continued to increase despite rising prices.
The oil industry is making record profits, there is no way anyone will build any refineries. A refinery running at 98% is much more profitable than one running at 60% capacity. Market forces dictate that refinery capacity remain below the optimal levels. Environmental folk may oppose refineries at certain locations but the only thing stopping their construction is greed.
Lower oil use makes economic sense for the country but not the industry, that is why it is ridiculous that Bush let the industry write the national energy policy. I don't care what you think of him in other areas, this was a major economic and national security issue. We are reaping exactly what we sowed.
My wife went shopping three different places yesterday and came home for 1 hr in between each trip. She could have halved her travel with five minutes of planning that morning. But like most Americans, she doesn't give it a second thought. Why can't people see the connections between driving and so many other problems we face?
Oy vey, I guess learning to plow with a mule will come in handy some day soon!
on a related note.
i think this video will only make sense if you've seen the ads linking drug money to terrorism.
http://www.greentowel.com/images/qt/GreenTowel_GasMoney.mov
Quote from: joerockerNow convince the minorities to do just that.
Standard Joerocker conversation:
Any Member of the GS Board: I like apples.
Joerocker: f%$king N_ggers and F_ggots, only they like apples.
Point being: Joe, your mere existence on this board has managed to bring down the intelligence level substantially. Chewing on broken glass would be a wonderful option for you.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
I've purchased a lot of stock in a company called Geotech Thermal. They have purchased the exclusive right to some old Soviet technology where a thermal generator is sunk in a dry well and it sends out a thermal pulse that causes oil to seep back into the well from its outer reserves.
It is an okay idea. Expensive and not terribly effective, but I figure, what the heck. The stock isn't worth crap. Might as well grab some. See if it catches on. They've gotten really good results on the wells being treated here in the States.
I don't know how it compares to the States but in UK we actually use more oil (indirectly) in our homes than in our cars which is a sobering thought. When we think of conserving oil & energy it's a much wider issue than at first seems obvious. Our homes also produce more waste, pollution and "greenhouse" gasses than our transportation.
Having said that I think the day of using the car without a thought or not planning journeys may be on the way out. Our govt is looking at sat-tracking and charging tolls on a how-busy route, time of day, day of week basis. There will be no hiding place and people will need to think a lot more. Callmelenny gave a very good example of how things are and an illustration of how they could be.
Casi,
I'll answer that one, I ignore most of your rants...
It is a FACT that white prople do not have many children. In fact the white population is dwindling because we have small families with 1 or 2 children.
It is also a FACT that minority families are huge by comparison with several children. Often more than they can afford. So yes, if the blacks and hispanics would learn to have smaller families we would be better off.
Now go sit at the kids table...
Quote from: joerockerBlah blah blah- talk about whatever you want, I'm just going to blame it on the minorities and gays anyway.
hahaha, you sure are pathetic. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Quote from: CasiCUAQuote from: joerockerNow convince the minorities to do just that.
Standard Joerocker conversation:
Any Member of the GS Board: I like apples.
Joerocker: f%$king N_ggers and F_ggots, only they like apples.
Point being: Joe, your mere existence on this board has managed to bring down the intelligence level substantially. Chewing on broken glass would be a wonderful option for you.
Ouch dude, ouch.
Quote from: Chris_BQuote from: CasiCUAQuote from: joerockerNow convince the minorities to do just that.
Standard Joerocker conversation:
Any Member of the GS Board: I like apples.
Joerocker: f%$king N_ggers and F_ggots, only they like apples.
Point being: Joe, your mere existence on this board has managed to bring down the intelligence level substantially. Chewing on broken glass would be a wonderful option for you.
Ouch dude, ouch.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: