Quote from: Tom WhippleWhen the historians come to write the history of the 21st Century, they may well record that the African nation of Zimbabwe was the first to succumb to peak oil.
For students of African economies, the current Zimbabwean meltdown comes as no surprise. During the last decade, Zimbabwe's dysfunctional government got itself involved in war that drained the treasury and then implemented a land redistribution program that drove out the white farmers. These actions devastated exports and led to runaway inflation. The Mugabe government finally got into so much trouble with the International Monetary Fund for failure to make meaningful reforms and repayments, that it is constantly on the verge of being thrown out of the IMF and in turn, can no longer avail itself of the Fund's services
When the price of oil started climbing into the $65+ range, official oil imports simply stopped. The country currently does not have the foreign exchange to purchase oil and it seems nobody is willing to extend credit on acceptable terms. Rigged elections and expropriated land have left the country at odds with the usual foreign aid donors so that only humanitarian food shipments are currently arriving in the country.
A few years ago, the government turned much of the oil import business over to the private sector while retaining price caps on retail gasoline. Obviously, when the cost of oil got higher than the permissible sales price, gas stations went dry. This has resulted in a black market where gasoline is selling for ten times the controlled price.
While Zimbabwe's multiple economic problems make it an atypical case, it is the first country to run almost completely out of oil. This, in turn, gives us a look at what will happen as the consequences of expensive and scarce oil spreads around the globe.
By last week, nearly all buses and commuter taxis in the capitol, Harare, had stopped running, forcing tens of thousands to walk to work. While there are still a lot of private cars on the road, they are being fueled with $36 a gallon black market gasoline. Municipal services have stopped. There are no trash collections, no ambulances, or operating public works vehicles. Only one fire truck has any fuel left. The police immediately commandeer any fuel they come across. Clean water and electricity are available sporadically. Hospitals are out of supplies and the staff is fleeing. What was once one of the cleanest, most modern cities in Africa is nearly finished.
The long-term effects on the Zimbabwean economy are equally dire. The only sugar refinery is shut due to a lack of coal caused by a lack of fuel for the coal-transporting railroad. Production of tobacco, a major export crop, is already down to 30 percent of pre-land reform levels. It now appears that only about five percent of the normal crop will be planted this year.
Large numbers of Zimbabweans are fleeing the county in the midst of what is clearly an economic death spiral. Famine, mass movements of peoples, and political turmoil cannot be far behind.
In the case of Zimbabwe, all this human misery is not completely attributable to peak oil and unaffordable gasoline; an abysmally incompetent government is playing a major part in the country's economic demise well in advance of better governed nations. It is, however, representative of what we will see again and again as oil depletion sets in. In the US, we are discussing whether tax cuts are the proper remedy for expensive gasoline. In Africa, people are starting to starve.
Somewhere in the future, peak oil will evolve a test of mankind's humanity to our less fortunate fellows. Will some sort of oil depletion protocol come to pass allowing at least of modicum of oil to support every country's essential services? Or will peak oil be marked by survival of the richest? This will soon be seen as the heart of the peak oil moral dilemma.
:o
Bah. I feel good cutting into the HOV lane solo in my Suburban. Although if Bush doesn't whip those towlheads and lower my gas prices, I might have to rent one fewer hooker a week.
$36 a gallon...
Even the GS isn't cost effective at that price.
Biodiesel.
Diesel emissions are carcinogenic, and diesel is also one of those billions-of-years-turnaround from dead dinosaurs. But biodiesel shows a lot of promise.
i'd love to get one of the military klr650 diesels (http://www.f1engineering.com/diesel%20bike%20specs.html) and run it on biodiesel.
one of the nice things with biodiesel is that a lot of farm equipment already runs on biodiesel and can be pretty easily converted. hopefully this will help cushion food production from the effects of an oil shortage.
if i had $16K to spend on a bike, i'd seriously think about one of these. then i'd probably use that $16k to buy a car.
now bill gates really can afford to buy a country.
Quote from: indestructiblemani'd love to get one of the military klr650 diesels and run it on biodiesel.
They make non military ones too... 0-60 in 10.6 seconds. :lol:
Sign me up for one of those bad boys. I'd love to put that motor in the GS frame. Man that would be fun! :thumb: With 100+mpg you'd only fill your tank once a year or so. :lol:
I'd say that this story is more of a description of what fails first when import/export collapses (transportation), rather than saying that high oil prices caused Zimbabwe to self-destruct. The death-knell could have been other things; for example, lack of money to buy basic antibiotics could have caused an epidemic that overran Harare.
This reminds me a bit of Larry Niven's "Ringworld": in a future society with antigravity, cities build upwards into the sky. One catastrophic failure of a power system, and the whole society is destroyed.
In this case, motorized transportation is that underpinning, that failed and could bring a city the size of Harare to a standstill.
not to mention, with biodiesel you get the added bonus of that good old 'french fry' smell where ever you go
Quote from: Rema1000I'd say that this story is more of a description of what fails first when import/export collapses (transportation), rather than saying that high oil prices caused Zimbabwe to self-destruct. The death-knell could have been other things; for example, lack of money to buy basic antibiotics could have caused an epidemic that overran Harare.
This reminds me a bit of Larry Niven's "Ringworld": in a future society with antigravity, cities build upwards into the sky. One catastrophic failure of a power system, and the whole society is destroyed.
In this case, motorized transportation is that underpinning, that failed and could bring a city the size of Harare to a standstill.
the cost of oil isn't what screwed over Zimbabwe - Robert Mugabe and his corrupt government did. the cost of oil is just a side-effect of his misgovernment, but it's one that's wreaking havoc on the country. There's going to be a civil war there within the next 5-10 years or less.
I'm not sure of the economics or energy balance implications, but the "gas to liquid" technique for create diesel fuel looks like it could be a great solution. Turns natural gas or methane or whatever into a clear liquid fuel that can be burned in diesel engines without modification, minus many of the emmissions problems. Qatar or one of those little countries out there is dumping a few billion into a Shell large scale production facility for the stuff.
jeff
Quote from: Jazzzzzthe cost of oil isn't what screwed over Zimbabwe
But, it sure helped...
Quote from: Jeff Pnatural gas or methane
Well, Natural Gas is peaking too...
Methane maybe... But, I'm pretty sure it's still an energy sink. Can you picture the hog farms like in Thunder Dome?
biodiesel from soy and ethanol from corn as they are made now aren't really much help in slowing petroleum usage either - they just shift it farther up the chain (petrochemical fertilizers)
efficient fuel cells are they way to go, if they can ever figure out a cheap way to make hydrogen
Quote from: Jazzzzzif they can ever figure out a cheap way to make hydrogen
That would be nice...
If we could make hydrogen without it being a HUUUUUUUGE sink... We'd be semi ok...
OK well there is some possibility that petroleum isn't a organic product at all ... it may be the earth's core giving off gasses like methane whihc are trapped and compressed into a higher and higher chain of hydro carbons and is in essence in exhaustible. In the 70's and 80's in the rigs in Gulf of Mexico they seemed to run out of petroleum. Then all of a sudden they seemed to find more and it was of better quality than the previous few decades. IN effect you remove some and the earth fills it back up. Now most of the worlds petroleum is and always was under russia, with china and India now making a bid in large quantity for the fuel I suppose russia will step in and supply that new demand, leaving US either with a surplus of Gulf and Domestic oil, or with US running a pipe line through Afganisthan (yea what a novel idea ... ) and getting our hands on the russian oil ... in any case, The panic of recent times is probably temporary, may last many years but is likely to be solved.
Cool.
Srinath.
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
Yea I managed to read that link finally ... and all I can say is ... no ... that is dead wrong on so many counts ...
OK This is what I believe will happen ...
Diesel and gas hits $5 a gallon and stays there due to lack of supply, the labs and scientists of the world will line up through the lobby, down the street and around the block with alternate fuels and ways to modify and refine existing materials to work in place of gasoline. Ethanol, bio diesel with modifications to reduce sulphur effects, and so on. We also will develop and use the ones that have been developed but are more $$ in place of all other petro chemicals ... see oil from petroleum is $1 a quart or less, synthetic is $5 a qt, as we start driving that $1 closer to $5 ... it will then become un feasible to use petro ... Just an example, I know synthetic also has petro base ... but in effect we can use used oil to manufacture it ... so we should be able to get by on faaaaar less petro ... there is many million chemicals comming out of petro based stuff, but they are all being used only because the alternative non petro is much more $$$ ... we will simply switch out, the US and most developed countries have the capacity to develop and research themselves out of the problem ... In essence we will once again have to lead the world in the shift out of petro ... Oh if we even drop our consumption by 10-20%, the OPEC will go bankrupt cos oil will literally have the bottom drop out of the market ... and the other countries like Zimbabwe can have all the oil they want ... BTW its china mainly and india secondarily that healthily have contributed to the crisis ... just like they used up all the steel and aluminum ... damn they snuck up on the world market good ... Soon I think russia and other russian republics will start selling oil to china and India and we'll have our choice of arab countries to fight and take oil from ...
Cool.
Srinath.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin
That is just 1 link, the non bio origin of petroleum is now starting to gain wide spread acceptance ... Just extract what you see and more of it of better quality will flow ... good case for drilling in alaska and the excavating the canadian Tar sands ...
Cool.
Srinath.
natural gas is no where near peak, there are gas pockets in the gulf so deep we can't drill them yet, but we will. And nobody even considers coal, coal can be turned into oil relatively cheap considering other options. Heck the Nazi's where producing diesel from coal in WW2. The US has coal out the butt... We can now deal with the sulfur content of western coal in the power plants, and its cheaper than eastern coal. There are so many new mining operations opening, esp. in areas like southern Illinois. That stupid oil crash theory is way too alarmist.
Coal is a replenishable resource. Take all the useless trees (I mean the trees that we cant use to build housed or tables out of and fire it in a kiln ... OK fine first let the sun have at it, then burn it in a low O2 atmosphere ... get the heat from that to do some else that needs heat ... like run a foundry or other ... OK fine not hot enough to melt stuff ... but hey we're still working on it ... and then use it just like petro coal ...
Cool.
Srinath.
It must be nice... Here... I'll do it too.
Good day, sunshine... Everything will be alright. YAY! I'm happy. :roll:
Useless trees? Good one...
You ever hear about the fuel shortage in Europe... The fuel was wood. They killed pretty much every source they could find and screwed themselves.
So tell me... When the mythical renewable alternative fuel source comes out, will it magically work in existing engines or will we have to convert them?
You should look at Brazil. They're the first country to actually try to break free of oil. How long did it take them? 2 years? No, try 25 years... Now, do the math on production vs demand. In 25 years it won't matter any more... In 10 years it won't matter.
It has very little to do with oil actually running out and it has everything to do with supply and demand... It has to do with conversion costs... It has to do with the cost of manufacturing the fuel in order for it to be CHEAP.
We could have enough oil for the next 5,000 years hiding somewhere... It doesn't matter. If we can't find it, we can't use it. Oil discovery peaked a long time ago. When discovery peaks, production peaks shortly after... That rule applies to everything, not just oil. Even if we were to find the largest source of oil every found, it wouldn't be enough... It still wouldn't matter. Demand is still going to outpace production. There's no way we can keep up with it... We can't even keep up with it now.
THAT is what Peak Oil is about. It has nothing to do with actually running out of oil.
Quote from: seshadri_srinathCoal is a replenishable resource. Take all the useless trees (I mean the trees that we cant use to build housed or tables out of and fire it in a kiln ... OK fine first let the sun have at it, then burn it in a low O2 atmosphere ... get the heat from that to do some else that needs heat ... like run a foundry or other ... OK fine not hot enough to melt stuff ... but hey we're still working on it ... and then use it just like petro coal ...
Cool.
Srinath.
That's not coal, though...that's charcoal. It doesn't have the density or the energy per weight that antrhacite coal has, and I believe it leaves more residue and produces far more carcinogens, making it unsuitable for most modern applications that require mineral coal (power generation, etc.), and I don't beleve it burns as hot. Coal (mineral coal) is not a replenishable resource...it is a fossil fuel.
Yeah lignite is the lowest rank of coal and it takes thousands of years to make, bituminous coal takes longer than that. Some Western states have millions and millions of tons of coal just sitting in reserves.
http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?id=1&display=rednews/2005/08/02/build/state/25-coal-fuel.inc
And how much energy does it take to convert it? How much "gas" is retained from the conversion? Since it is also a finite resource, will the source last long enough to find another source?
And the most important question...
Can the production keep pace with demand?
Alternative fuel sources are great if they're not an energy sink, but the problem is keeping up with the demand for fuel. That's what peak oil is about. If we can't keep our fuel running at its increasing pace, we will all suffer...
Well that article says the break even point is 35 dollars a barrel, and the price now is closer to double that, so its cheaper now for conversion. The reason we have yet to persude this is we have been getting oil from the middle east for less than 35. I think there is a reason the government lets billions of reserves sit while we fight for foregn oil, I just hope they are smart. :dunno:
There is enough coal in the US to fuel our great, great-grand children, probably much longer than that. And as far as production keeping pace with demand, thats all a factor of getting enough refinerys that are capible. Same with the gases problem.
Thats the reason the value of high sulfer content coal has risen, because we have figured out how to convert it to power without all the pollution. everyone is worried about oil and gas for their cars, but the average joe doesn't have a clue where his power comes from. And no one is worried about power. There is no need to be either.
I don't know the answers to you questions, thats for sure, but I have seen a boom in coal in the last 2 years that is incredible. And for good reason.
Quote from: Stephen072774everyone is worried about oil and gas for their cars, but the average joe doesn't have a clue where his power comes from. And no one is worried about power.
Power is one of the things to worry about with a fuel shortage... But, food is the #1 thing to worry about.
It takes a lot of time and money to get a new system into place... The way things are looking, we're already nearly broke and time is running out.
I'd love to have a shinny happy outlook on it, but our government has been ignoring this issue since the 70s... That doesn't give me any confidence. If individual people could make a difference, there'd be something we could do. It takes government mandates and gobs of tax money to change our energy supply to a new source.
I don't know about you, but I'm not worried about how I'm gonna get to work... I'm worried about having a work to go to. The economic repercussions from an energy shortage are not something I'm looking forward to.
Quote from: RVertigoI don't know about you, but I'm not worried about how I'm gonna get to work... I'm worried about having a work to go to. The economic repercussions from an energy shortage are not something I'm looking forward to.
Well, i work in the coal industry. But yea I can understand what you're saying.
You guys hiring? Talk about job security!!
I wouldn't go on and on about peak oil if the government would actually get off its lazy ass and do something.
The last energy bill to pass just poured more money into oil, including more tax breaks for oil companies... Not even a mention of peak oil or alternative fuels.
Truly an exellent article Vertigo.....exellent. So sad but true. Robert Mugabe is nothing more than a spear wielding savage in a business suit to be sure. Surely the world can see what happens when seemingly good intentions "turn back over" a country to the premiere (is that the right word?) occupants (that were running around in animal skins) of a country and expectations are that they are "just like" the Colonialists that engineered the skyscrapers and the once greatness of the country. One of the many arguments given is that "they" never had the opportunity or education.
Now one sees the putrid squalor the populace is forced to endure.
It is a return to what it used to be. Zimbabwe (that is Bantu dialect for old Rhodesia) is destined, I'm afraid to become a dustbowl.......just like most parts of Africa. I'm personally deathly afraid of what is to become of our great nation as well. The 3rd world syndrome. I am also afraid of what will become of our brethren across the pond in Great Britian and all of Europe. I raise my glass to people like Cecil Rhodes and Ian Smith.
Those were the kind that were PERMITTED to go in.......stomp ass......build and HOLD ON to what was a crown jewel surrounded by thorns and a cesspool. May God rest their souls and have mercy on us as a nation. There are the Elitists that want to destroy us all for their ill-gotten gains all the while under the guise for the good of all. May horrific DEATH befall them all. Love, Wilson
If we could just get engines that run on saltwater.... :lol: .
Or some kind of nuclear power, that would be pretty cool... :?
How come motor oil itself is still cheap, but gas is expensive? Is that because the refining is what costs so much money, or it is a completely different oil, or what? :dunno: