So, oil hit over $67US a barrel today, I figure it's time to see what people think, and what people know. Are any of you aware that a growing number of professionals believe that world oil production could peak by 2008 or sooner? The US Energy association put the date somewhere nearer 2035-2040. During the oil shocks of the 70's (when US oil production peaked) oil went up to about $80 a barrel (adjusted for inflation) The usual price is $20 per barrel. Are the rising gas prices affecting anybody yet? Im really just curious what others think of the subject. It could all be a marketing scheme to make the oil company's (governments) more money, after all they did make tens of billions more compared to last year. So, opinions?

I guess I'll just have to ride the bike more and I am glad my car isn't an SUV.

50 mpg  

well, i suppose optimism is key

the peak oil thing may wind up being serious excrement hits the fan stuff.

this is one reason i've seriously thought about getting a vehicle that could run biodiesel.  i'd love one of those military diesel KLR650s that gets 150+ mpg.

Well it is quite disturbing that it has jumped so high in such a short amount of time but compared to the rest of the world it is still pretty cheap.

Yay for peak oil...

I'm pretty sure the global peak will happen within the next year... Assuming it hasn't already happened.

Going to work a couple of days ago I paid $1.62 a LITRE at current exchange rate. I guess we will be fermenting and distilling sugar beet/corn/apples etc to burn in engines on a much bigger scale fairly soon.

Our old friend Otto Deisel invented an engine in 1912 designed to run on corn oil after all it was only the fact that in the 20s and 30s oil was plentiful and certain companies had a vested interest in burning it that the corn oil thing did not catch on in a big way.

Chris,

I've mentioned that before in other posts.  It is a REAL problem and the big question is when will it happen.

I don't know what you know about "peak oil" so I'll give you a quick primer.

Supposedly there is only so much oil.  The oil is locked away underground in deposits, some very large other quite small.  Many believe that ALL of the large deposits have already been found and tapped (the artic refuge will be soon).  Oil isn't simply pumped out of the ground like tapping a big drum, it is contained in cracks in rock or sand.  You can only pump it so fast.  Think of a slurpee, if you suck it fast you "dry out" and have to wait a while until you can get some more liquid.  Same thing with an oil well, you can only pump so fast and let it fill back in.  So, with all the oil deposits found, being pumped, and pumped as fast as possible, you have "peak oil" which means the END of energy growth which also means the end of ALL growth because of the ties to energy.  The Saudies are already there, you already hear about lack of "excess capacity".  That means they are pumping all their fields as quickly as they can.

BTW, corn oil isn't the answer, alcohol isn't the answer.  To grow crops takes oil.  Fertilizer takes oil.  It takes as much or more oil to make an equal quantity of any of these "bio" fuels.  Hydrogen isn't the answer either.  It takes a LOT of energy to make hydrogen and even more to turn it to liquid for storage.  Solar is really our ONLY hope for clean, cheap, renewable energy.  Then we can save the oil that's left for making things.  Oil is used (as an ingredient) to make just about everything that isn't wood or metal.

BTW, I own a "royalty trust" it buys up oil fields and collects a royalty on every barrel pumped out.  So, as the price of oil goes up the royalty goes up too.  It's paying a 10% dividend right now.

who cares whenthe oil peaks,  just as man has always done-- something will come along as a replacement fuel.  we may have to change the way we move from place to place, but we'll still get there.  maybe my bike well be running on maple tree extract  :dunno:  or maybe distilled cow $*it  :dunno:  either way we will always get to where we need to go.     By the way I have a company vehicle and gas card so gas prices don't affect me that much.   last fill up on my personal vehicle lasted 4 months

Joerocker's point about alternative fuels is a good one. Most ethanol and biodiesel production relies on the machinery of farming that is mostly running  petro diesel.  I run biodiesel in my truck anyway and sometimes make it from waste oil which changes the energy dynamics. Most ethanol and biodiesel stuff right now is simply a way to get government subsidies.

I have given up on the public ever investing in real alternative sources of energy. Few seem to have the desire to sacrifice now for later benefit. I guess we will lurch toward an energy crisis and hopefully rising fuel costs will be enough of a market force to encourage other developments.

Maybe that cold fusion will eventually work out, or we will learn how to mimic photosythesis at some point.

Otherwise, I see a lot of these in our future.

Quote from: callmelennyJoerocker's point about alternative fuels is a good one. Most ethanol and biodiesel production relies on the machinery of farming that is mostly running  petro diesel.

as you point out, most of the farm equipment runs on diesel anyway.  the switch to make it run biodiesel would be fairly easy.  in some cases you'll have to replace some hoses and things.

in fact, it's my understanding that there are at least a handful of farmers who have already switched and are growing their own fuel.

You don't get it...  Biodiesel relies on things that grow and ALL the fertilizer is made from oil.  You're NOT gaining ANYTHING you're simply using MORE oil on something else that could have been simply used as regular petroleum fuel in the first place.

THERE IS NOTHING TO REPLACE OIL.  You NEED to learn that.  ALL fertilizer, ALL plastics, ALL fuels need oil in their production.  Hydrogen requires oil to produce, uranium requires oil to produce, bio-fuel requires oil to grow it and produce it.  Oil is IT!  Besides the sun there is NO other energy.  OIL is what made the world what it is today.

Go and look at a chart of human population.  There were only a few million people on earth up until several hundred or so years ago.  Then suddenly after the industrial revolution there were a billion.  Then around 1950 or so there were 3 billion.  Now there are about 6.5 billion.  OIL is what allowed the food supply and transportation needed to feed these people.  Estimates are that the world can sustain (as long as the oil holds out) about 10 billion people.

There is NO substitute for oil.  Look up what oil is used for.  Look up how much we use a DAY.  Look up the proven reserves.  You don't just start running your bike on bio fuel, you throw ALL the cars away and start over.  This is potentially a HUGE problem that may get here faster than any of you would like.  This isn't something to pass on to your grandchildren, YOUR grandparents already passed it to YOU.

Ok, now a quick word for all the nit-pickers.  Sure, SOME farmers are self-sufficient with energy and growing their crops, etc.  BUT, they are doing everything by hand/animal labor, growing organically, blah blah blah.  That works for them and a SMALL operation.  maybe they feed their family and run a small produce stand.  To feed a nation or a world cannot be done that way.  You NEED the oil.

Also, Id like to add that the world carrying capacity without oil is estimated at around 2.5 billion, or roughly 4 billion less people than are living on this planet today. Once oil does peak, a conservative estimate of how many more years we can get out of the oil at the current rate of consumption would be about 50. Also, nuclear can and most likely will become a huge part of electricity generation, but we still have the transportation to worry about, which all uses oil. The government will start to regulate how much gas you can have per week, or month, youll get a gas card that allows only a certain amount to be purchased, so there is some left for transporting food and cloths to the supermarkets and wal-marts. Alot of the bigger oil feilds are being pressurized by pumping sea water into the wells, which reduces the ultimate amount of recoverable oil, and also makes the feild decline once peaked faster, some at more than 10 percent a year. today gas went up to 99.9 where i live, still nothing compared to what the people in europe are paying, but you have to realise that because our economy (North America) is the 20mpg type, rather than the europeans 60 mpg type, rising gas prices will hurt us more than they will europe, a very smart move on europes part was to put crazy high taxes on their gas, it will pay off in the end for its citizens. Im not saying its the end of the world, but it is certainly the end of this kind of world, be prepared for complete and total change.

http://peakoil.blogspot.com/2005/06/biomass-chemistry.html


this all sounds like a really good argument for birth control.

Now convince the minorities to do just that.

Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah
idiotidotidotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiot
Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah
idiotidotidotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiot
Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah
idiotidotidotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiot
Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah
idiotidotidotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiot
Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah
idiotidotidotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiot
Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah
idiotidotidotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiot
Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah
idiotidotidotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiot
Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah
idiotidotidotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiot
Blahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblahblah
idiotidotidotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiotidiot

what we need to do is convince maybe 50% of the world's population to  become homosexual.

that would go a long way to solving the population problem right there.  might do wonders for theatre too.

LOL                            

Personaly I feel it's about darn time America takes another slap in the face for using all the World's Oil. Let face it How many times commuting to work do you see HOV-lane users [legaly]? In DC here not very often espicaly when you compare the amount of HOV drivers to all the single passenger vehicles. :x  Whatever happened to car pooling, or riding the City's Bus? Ya I know the Bus sucks but if there were enough people riding it then the City would be more inclined to dump in some of that tax fund into making better routes, better/cleaner experiences etc...

Out of curiousity how many GS's were purchased to save money on gas over their 4wheel contenders? I know that was the 2and reason I even got into motorcycling, was the though of 50+mpg

Another good thing about this "peak oil the world is DOOMED" plot is it might whip the American Obesity epidemic into action. I personally have 15miles to travel to work. I'm looking and researching bicycles that I might purchase in the future just for transportation to-from work. And even my car gets 38mpg. So if gas hits $5 a gallong so be it. I've already goten into the mind set that gas in America will not be below $3 ever again I'm personaly set to move into the pedal power age :lol:   But Seriously where was the research on alt. fuels? Errr ya >>> There was none because DOT was bussy trying to figure out how to keep SUV's from rolling over......  

Like someone already said we [america] need to focus on a 60-75mpg economy and not this 18mpg SUV demands.

As for electric, power I think Solar looks very promising and I think Wind turbines will aid in the transition to a solar electric grids for cities. Nuclear's days are winding to a halt....TO unstable, and still HUGE Q's on what to do with the waste products?? You pretty much have to store it for ever....Until Humans can Get a Fission reactor under control I think Nuclear power is all spent :lol:

Bio-diesel is good for the environment as far as byproducts go and it AKA-burns trash to make power. HOWEVER like someone else pointed out it still remains the same demand on Oil to filter the biodiesel and make the fertalizer for the crops that will turn-into the biodiesel.

Bottom line
__________________
It's all about Supply and Demand