This weekend Kosovo declared Independence from Serbia. Serbia and Russia say it is illegal and "unhelpful". Illegal it may or may not be, greater brains than mine will decide. Unhelpful is a sure thing, a one hundred percent surefire cert.

It is said that the US and UK and some EC countries will recognise Kosovo as yet another "new" country. The EC won't because countries like Spain and Cyprus have real potential problems with regions self declaring nationhood. There are still a lot of separatist movements in Europe that complicate things, German speaking ethnic Austrians in the Italian Tyrol who look back to Italy's first world war gains. French and Flemish Belgians, both have "independence" parties and aspirations. Britain has Irish, Scots, Welsh, Cornish and even English nationalists. The more you look the more you find, spread out a little and Turkey has issues about Kurds, Armenians and Greek speaking regions. All this means that the neighboring countries will be predisposed to dither if a conflict kicks off.

Now looking at this from outside as a citizen of a free democracy it is difficult not to have some sympathy with a people seeking freedom, as they see it. On the other hand Kosovo has long been a part of the Serbian Homeland and a lot of ethnic Serbs still live there.

What bothers me is what happens if Serbia decides to exercise its military superiority. the Kosovans seem to expect that "the west" will intervene on their behalf but consider the practicalities.

There are 16000 NATO (European) troops and Police already in Kosovo with more on "standbye"  Here lies the problem. Clearly the US will not want to involve itself especially in an election year, in an issue that it sees as a matter for the EC and European NATO countries.
The UK has already troops on the ground with just short of another 1000 waiting in the wings but in reality could not put more than a few thousand more in even if it wanted. The Brit army is a full stretch with a big deployment in Afghanistan, a smaller one in Iraq and Sierra Leon, troops in Cyprus and other sensitive base area around the world.
The Germans will play the constitutional card but one doubts if the German army would be welcome in any part of the former Yugoslavia, who knows what the French will do but they will probably decide that there is no french interest at stake and keep out. Belgium and Holland usually make a small but commensurate contribution as do so of the former "Eastern Block" but they will be unwilling to upset Russia sitting uncomfortably on her doorstep.

I really hope this is settled without shooting but frankly I doubt that it will be. If a resurgent Russian-backed Serbia decides to invade/ intervene probably to "protect" ethnic Serbs what the hell is going to happen. Perhaps the U.N. will perform a rare miracle? some chance.

  The US has troops there.. We have for years. There are full active US posts there. I would imagine that the forces there have been beefed up or will be shortly

Quote from: Cal Price on February 18, 2008, 04:43:45 PM
This weekend Kosovo declared Independence from Serbia. Serbia and Russia say it is illegal and "unhelpful". Illegal it may or may not be, greater brains than mine will decide. Unhelpful is a sure thing, a one hundred percent surefire cert.

It is said that the US and UK and some EC countries will recognise Kosovo as yet another "new" country. The EC won't because countries like Spain and Cyprus have real potential problems with regions self declaring nationhood. There are still a lot of separatist movements in Europe that complicate things, German speaking ethnic Austrians in the Italian Tyrol who look back to Italy's first world war gains. French and Flemish Belgians, both have "independence" parties and aspirations. Britain has Irish, Scots, Welsh, Cornish and even English nationalists. The more you look the more you find, spread out a little and Turkey has issues about Kurds, Armenians and Greek speaking regions. All this means that the neighboring countries will be predisposed to dither if a conflict kicks off.

Now looking at this from outside as a citizen of a free democracy it is difficult not to have some sympathy with a people seeking freedom, as they see it. On the other hand Kosovo has long been a part of the Serbian Homeland and a lot of ethnic Serbs still live there.

What bothers me is what happens if Serbia decides to exercise its military superiority. the Kosovans seem to expect that "the west" will intervene on their behalf but consider the practicalities.

There are 16000 NATO (European) troops and Police already in Kosovo with more on "standbye"  Here lies the problem. Clearly the US will not want to involve itself especially in an election year, in an issue that it sees as a matter for the EC and European NATO countries.
The UK has already troops on the ground with just short of another 1000 waiting in the wings but in reality could not put more than a few thousand more in even if it wanted. The Brit army is a full stretch with a big deployment in Afghanistan, a smaller one in Iraq and Sierra Leon, troops in Cyprus and other sensitive base area around the world.
The Germans will play the constitutional card but one doubts if the German army would be welcome in any part of the former Yugoslavia, who knows what the French will do but they will probably decide that there is no french interest at stake and keep out. Belgium and Holland usually make a small but commensurate contribution as do so of the former "Eastern Block" but they will be unwilling to upset Russia sitting uncomfortably on her doorstep.

I really hope this is settled without shooting but frankly I doubt that it will be. If a resurgent Russian-backed Serbia decides to invade/ intervene probably to "protect" ethnic Serbs what the hell is going to happen. Perhaps the U.N. will perform a rare miracle? some chance.

There doesn't really seem to be a benefit to patrolling the world. The US is fairly safe from invasion given it's position on the globe. Why our gov't feels the need to get involved in every other countries business is beyond me. 

i have been to kosavo and helped get refugees out of the province to Canada and America in 99.  that area has all ways been a hot spot. remember it was regional fighting and an assassination that started WW1

well lets just hope that cooler heads prevail in this case!